Well maybe with the whole Tiger Woods “apology” facade out of the way Alex Rodriguez may get some credit for being so “honest” during his press conference last year when he admitted his steroid use. After all A-Rod or Roid didn’t need a podium or a script and in fact took questions, albeit probably pre-screened, during his apology/forgiveness speech. Too bad Tiger let a camera into his conference, he had me going for a minute when I was listening to the live stream and I actually told a colleague of mine that he was doing a “pretty good job”. After watching a good portion of the televised speech I realized that Tiger’s apology speech was as bad an idea as a Backstreet Boy reunion tour, he would’ve done a lot better if he’d done a one-on-one interview to apologize for his actions or at least release a tape of a recorded speech from “rehab”. He constant stumbling and robotic approach showed that he wasn’t speaking from the heart and clearly didn’t review his script before he took center stage. The only “from the heart” moment was when he talked about his 2 ½ year old daughter being stalked by the paparazzi, where he actually showed emotion and demanded the attention only be on him and not his family. Note to the wise if you need to apologize for something, do it from the heart and don’t let your publicist write an apology that you truly don’t believe in. That’s my take, Bill Simmons take shots at Tiger’s speech here. If you want an inspirational story read an OTL report here.

• I was excited for Olympic hockey, but it is not the same on the smaller NHL style rinks.  I feel like I’m watching an NHL game.  The larger international rinks produce exciting hockey.  Note to future Olympic organizers in North America…Use international standards.  My eyes still hurt from watching yesterdays games.
• Karma just won’t let go of Lindsey Jacobellis.  She will pay for that pre-mature celebration 4 years ago for the rest of her life.  The Olympic Gods frown on unsportsmanlike conduct.
• Hannah Kearney’s moguls run was lights out.  That speed through the middle of the course left me speechless.  Her run was the epitome of the Olympic quest.  Stare pressure in the face, laugh at it, and hug your teammates at the bottom.  She’s a goddess.
• Short track speed skating is so exciting that I almost wish it was on television in the US more often.
• Congrats to Mr. Ohno on becoming the most decorated American Winter Olympian of all time.
• I watched 10k womens nordic skiing and I loved it.  Something about the Olympics…
• Plushenko’s mullet should get its own gold medal.  It made it possible to turn off that horrible excuse for Olympic hockey.
• I hope Lindsey Vonn can compete at her best.  She is the most dominant athlete in the games and possibly in all of sports right now.  She deserves her shot.
• My heart and prayers to the family of the Georgian luger.

In my last two “How to Fix NASCAR” posts I focused on the parts of the sport that NASCAR needs to change to bring back the casual fan (remember, it’s the casual fan that drives growth.  In racing terminology the hard-core fan would be the chassis, but the casual fan is the engine).  It wasn’t exactly rocket science.  Anyone canfigure out that if you implement the changes I proposed you will gradually bring fans back into the sport.  Unfortunately it’s not as simple that I made it out to be. There is one major correlation that needs to be made.  How the on-track death of Dale Earnhardt affected both the rise and recent fall of NASCAR.

Prior to 2001 NASCAR was slowly gaining traction among sports fans outside of its core south-eastern United States demographic (aka: the hard-core fans).  One event on February 18, 2001 changed everything.  What happened that day?  Dale Earnhardt, NASCAR’s most popular driver, died from trauma suffered in an on-track accident during the Daytona 500.  All of a sudden the focus of the sports world was on NASCAR.  The publicity generated wasn’t positive, but it was publicity that the casual sports fan couldn’t turn away from.  The story was emotional and we as, not only fans, but human beings, wanted, maybe needed, to follow the drama that ensued.  But we needed something or someone to latch onto.  NASCAR had the perfect person; Dale Earnhardt Jr, the son of Dale Earnhardt.

The rise of NASCAR between the years of 2001 – 2005 (television ratings have dropped 21% from their peak in 2005) correlates directly with the growth of Dale Earnhardt Jr.  The casual fan, who never would have watched NASCAR had Dale Earnhardt not died, suddenly had a reason to follow the sport.  Therefore the death of Dale Earnhardt which brought countless fans into NASCAR and the subsequent aftermath of those fans wanting to follow the career of Dale Earnhardt Jr. was the primary reason for the growth of NASCAR.

That leaves one question that you are probably asking yourself.  What role does Jimmie Johnson play in all of this?  It’s simple really.  When the casual fan no longer felt an emotional connection with Dale Earnhardt Jr. due to the death of his father they were left with two choices.  Stop following the sport or find another driver to attach themselves to.  Therefore it is no coincidence that NASCAR’s drop in popularity correlates directly with the year, and subsequent years, that Jimmie Johnson has dominated the sport.

Sports fans in general can appreciate what Jimmie Johnson has accomplished.  They know that any athlete who wins four straight championships in their sport is elite.  Johnson is the Tiger Woods or Roger Federer of NASCAR.  He just has one fatal flaw.  He is emotionally neutral.  Most writers have described him as vanilla.  His lack of personality conjures no emotion for the casual fan and even to an extent the hard-core fan.  No one loves him, but not one hates him either.  NASCAR, more than any sport, has played off the good guy/bad guy relationship.  Dale Earnhardt was both loved and reviled.  Jeff Gordon was hated by Earnhardt fans, but loved by his haters.  Fans had someone to not only root for, but to root against with equal passion.

The modern drivers, with a few exceptions, are carbon copies of each other.  They all do and say the right things on and off the track.  They are all clean-cut, polite, white guys.  They are a sponsors dream and a casual fans nightmare.  A fan is driven by emotional attachment and there are no drivers with whom the casual fan can connect with emotionally.  So what do the fans do?  They stop following the sport.

NASCAR is trying to give the drivers more freedom to be themselves.  If guys like Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin are allowed to break the mold and simply be who they want to be and not who the sponsors want them to be the sport will be better off for it.  Emotion on the track will breed emotion off of it.  If NASCAR wants to bring back the casual fan that emotion needs to find its way back into their living rooms.

HERE IT IS

f  you read my earlier “How to fix NASCAR” column you know that I believe the sport to be broken and how it needs drastic changes to put it back on the level of the NFL and MLB.  For this segment I am going to focus on race day changes NASCAR needs to make in order to improve the spectator experience both live and on television.

Make The Races Shorter: There is absolutely no reason that every race has to be a 5-hour 400-500 mile/lap race.  I certainly don’t want to kill my day watching drivers just “making” laps for 480 miles.  It’s boring.  Make the majority of the races 250-300 mile/laps.  No race should be longer than three hours.  The exceptions should be the Daytona 500, Southern 500, Coca Cola 600, Coke Zero 400 at Daytona (July 4^th weekend), and the Brickyard 400.

The die-hard core fan is important to the sports consistency, but the casual fan fuels its growth.  NASCAR has lost the casual fan.  Only hard-core fans want to spend 8 hours every Sunday in front of a TV watching NASCAR related content.  NASCAR should follow the NFL’s model.  Saturate the day with coverage for the hard-core fans, but keep the games short for the casual fan.  I don’t watch all the pre-game shows, but I do take three hours out of my day to watch the Giants.  NASCAR needs to bring back and keep the casual fan.  They need to start thinking like a casual fan.  Don’t try to convert them to hard-core.  They will resist.  Just give them what they need to stay engaged.

What’s the added benefit of shorter races?  Better racing.  The drivers will have to be engaged throughout the whole race.  There will be no more making laps for the sake of making laps.  Every lap will count.  Less pit-stops will put more emphasis on getting track position the old fashioned way; racing for it.  It will be more fun for the drivers and more exciting for the spectators.

You want another added benefit?  Lower costs.  This was a major reason I gave for shortening the schedule.  Anytime NASCAR can lower costs for teams is a recipe for growth.  It boosts competition and spreads sponsorship dollars around more evenly.  The haves and have-nots will always exist to some extent, but more funding available to smaller teams will close that gap significantly.

Make Informed Starting Times:

This is tricky.  Everyone on the east coast hates the 3:30pm starts for races on the west coast, but we have to live with that.  However, there should be some attempt at consistent start times for any races east of the mountain time zone.  I understand there are television conflicts and this is generally not NASCAR’s decision, but fans want consistency in scheduling.  The NFL is on at the same times every week.  We know our team is on at 1:00 or 4:15 and it will kick-off promptly.  If NASCAR advertises a 2:00pm start the race usually doesn’t start until closer to 3:00.  Tell us when the green flag is dropping and then tell us pre-race coverage starts earlier.  Most of the time I tune in at 2:00, find out the race doesn’t start for an hour, and never tune back in.  My time is more valuable than that.

Put Fans In The Seats:

I just went on the Daytona website and was able to buy a ticket.  The Daytona 500 is NASCAR’s Super Bowl and I was able to buy a ticket 4 days before the race.  When you can’t sell out the 500 you’ve got problems.  When television viewers see empty seats on TV it projects a horrible image.  You can’t blame the economy either.  We’ve been staring at empty seats for years.  I should have mentioned that the above ticket was $185.  I assume most of if not all of the cheapest tickets have been sold, but the fact remains I was able to buy one.  The problem NASCAR has that other sports don’t is that their fans have to factor in travel costs as well.  NASCAR and the tracks have to realize this.  Ticket prices should reflect the total cost of the race-day experience, not just the race.  They need to work with local hotels to make sure they are not gouging the fans.  They need to lower ticket prices if need be.  All of the bells and whistles, on-track entertainment, and etc mean nothing to fans.  Nothing.  It’s pretty obvious.  Sure, they enjoy it, but the only thing they care about is price.  If the product is affordable they will go.  If it’s not, they will stay home and watch in HD.

A shorter season will help sell tickets.  If the majority of tracks only have one date then the fans that are usually spread out amongst two dates will consolidate into one date.  Shorter races will sell tickets also.  As I said earlier; a shorter race will make better racing.  The better the product, the better chance fans will show up.  But only if the economics are right.

With Speed Weeks in Daytona upon us, I am going to review different aspects of NASCAR and determine how they can be fixed.  NASCAR is broken right now.  The seats are empty and they are purging TV viewers and sponsorship money.  I am going to focus on the NASCAR season/schedule in my first installment.

As it is now the NASCAR season is too long.  I am a die-hard fan and am so burned out by the end of the season that I haven’t watched a Chase race since its inception.  When I am not watching the playoffs there is a problem.  The current season starts mid-February and lasts into November.  I am proposing a new schedule.  It will be shorter, provide better racing, and will only minimally conflict with the NFL season.  A shorter season also cuts costs, which lowers the sponsorship numbers that teams need to operate, which will eventually lead to more sponsorship dollars being spread out to more teams.  This will obviously lead to more competitive racing.

The main entity within NASCAR that would fight any plan to shorten the season would be track owners (I know there are a lot of politics involved and tried to make sure both of the primary owners had all or most of their tracks included).  Most racks lost their second date and this would not go over well with shareholders.  The value of broadcast rights would also fall.  Less races = less money.  The drivers pay would probably fall as well since they will be working less, but because they are independent contractors and are not unionized, they have very little power to fight any changes.

My schedule will feature 26 races (down from 36) not including the Bud Shootout and the All-Star race (both of which are accounted for in my below schedule).  The season will start in March and end the last weekend of September.  I cut the Chase from ten races to eight.  Ten races is too long.  The shorter the Chase the best chance we have at getting multiple drivers vying for the championship at the last race.  I used the 2010 calendar to make my schedule.  It is what this coming season would look like if it were implemented immediately.  Let me know what you think.

PROPOSED NEW SCHEDULE:

3/6 (Saturday Night) – Bud Shootout (Daytona)

3/14 (Sunday Daytime) – Daytona 500

3/21 – Fontana

3/28 – Las Vegas

4/3-4 – Phoenix

4/10-11: Off

4/17-18:  Richmond

4/24-25: Homestead

5/1-2: Talladega

5/8-9: Martinsville

5/15-16: Darlington Southern 500

5/22-23 – Charlotte All-Star Race

5/30 – Charlotte Coca-Cola 600

6/5-6 – Bristol

6/12-13: Sonoma Road Course

6/18-19 – Michigan

6/26-27 – NASCAR Open Rotating Track

7/3 (Saturday Night) – 400 at Daytona

7/10-11 – Loudon

7/17-18 – Richmond

7/24-25 – Charlotte

7/31-8/1 – Off

8/7-8*: Dover

8/14-15* – Watkins Glen Road Course

8/21-22*: Texas

8/28-29*: Bristol

9/4-5 (Labor Day)*: Atlanta

9/11-12* Talladega

9/18-19*: Chicago

9/25-26*: Indianapolis Brickyard 400

* = Chase for the Sprint Cup race

Notes:

• I tried to give every track a date, but it was impossible under this format.  I chose to eliminate Kansas because it offers little market share contribution and the races at the 1 ½ mile tracks are usually boring for the viewer.  I eliminated Pocono because I just don’t feel that it’s relevant anymore.
• Bristol and Richmond kept both races because they are short tracks which provide the best racing and are crucial to the integrity of the sport.  Talladega and Daytona kept both races for the same reason.  They are the only two restrictor plate tracks.  Charlotte keeps both because it is home base which gives the crews extra time to be home.
• I kept the two road courses because I believe they are crucial to the integrity of the sport.  However, I think the road course locations should rotate. Eliminating Watkins Glen or Sonoma every year (with each rotating on the schedule every other year always in the Chase spot) and replacing the June date with Montreal and Mexico City would be huge for NASCAR’s international growth.  We need to have the Sprint guys running in those races not the Nationwide guys.  Bringing the big guns shows a commitment to growth on the part of NASCAR.
• I scheduled the western swing early to avoid any March/April temperature/weather issues in the east and mid-west. The off week that follows is another week that those same issues can be avoided.
• I tried to keep with tradition as much as possible.  The Daytona 500 kicks off the season, The Southern 500 is in May as per the tradition of its roots going back to the Rebel 300, Charlotte keeps the 600, July 4th weekend in Daytona, Labor Day in Atlanta, and Dover kicking off the Chase.
• I envision the spot occupying the Rotating Track as sort of a NASCAR Open type event the goes to a different track every year (with repeats sort of like the Final Four or National Championship Game), Kansas and Pocono would regain their spots in this format and possibly Kentucky and Iowa can be involved too.  I would schedule it like this 2010 Pocono, 2011 Kansas, 2012 Kentucky, 2013 Pocono, 2014 Kansas, 2015 Iowa etc etc.  Other cities with tracks can get involved too.  How awesome would a race be at the Milwaukee Mile or returning to Rockingham?
• I considerer the two weeks in Charlotte to be the equivalent of off time for the crews.  They are working, but they are home.  I scheduled the Charlotte –> Off Week right before the Chase to give the crews and drivers time to recharge before the Chase.
• Due to the smaller schedule I eliminated two Chase races.  I tried to make the eight races as diverse as possible for both viewers and drivers.  The Chase should be an all-around test of skill.  I included a short track, a road course, a restrictor plate track, a flat super speedway, and a concrete track to challenge the drivers.
• One of the complaints about NASCAR is it starts the season off with their Super Bowl and loses momentum; making the Chase kind of ho-hum.  In NASCAR, if the Daytona 500 is the Super Bowl then the Brickyard 400 is the BCS Championship.  By ending the Chase at the worlds most famous speedway you bring the hype back into the finale. It’s the only way to go head to head with the NFL. The track is also an equalizer (2 ½ miles and flat corners).  It provides exciting racing, doesn’t usually have any major wrecks to affect the outcome of the Chase, and is one of a kind so the teams haven’t been building up information about it throughout the season.
• This schedule also eliminates the entire chase going head to head with the NFL.

Well, the Super Bowl is upon us, and with it, the end of the NFL season.  As it stands we have the two teams that went longest without losing playing in the Super Bowl; The Indianapolis Colts from the AFC and the New Orleans Saints from the NFC.  Who will win?  We’ll have to wait and see, but here’s how I see it playing out.

On the surface it seems simple.  The Saints have to score.  They can not leave any points on the field.  The Saints defense is not equipped to stop Peyton Manning.  They relied on their blitz packages to beat and beat-up Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, but there’s no one better against the blitz than Manning.  We all saw what he did to the Ravens and Jets blitzing schemes.  If you don’t hit him within a second or two you’ll get burned.  No one gets rid of the ball quicker than and as accurate as Manning.

The Saints have to pounce early.  Manning is essentially the Colts offensive coordinator.  Therefore it takes him about a quarter to figure out how best to attack the opposing defense.  It is a small window of opportunity for the Saints, but it provides hope.  They need to score touchdowns in the 1^st quarter.

The x-factor could be the Colts running game.  They haven’t used it much, but the Saints defense does not play the run particularly well.  I have a feeling we’ll see it on Sunday.  Manning is no fool.  His bread and butter most of his career has been play-action.  If he can get the play-action game going the Saints may need to score 50 to win.

Can the Saints score 50 against the Colts defense?  Maybe, the Saints can score 50 against anybody.  Will they?  I doubt it.  The injury to Dwight Freeney will hurt the Colts defense.  I think he’ll at least play on passing downs, but I doubt he’ll be too effective.  Even without Freeney I think they can generate a pass-rush and may be better against the run at that right end spot.  The Colts defense is fast and the Saints like to use short passes and swing passes early to set up the vertical passing game.  This will be the key match-up when the Saints have the ball.  If the Colts linebackers and safeties can sniff out those plays, get to the receivers, and make open field tackles the Saints will be out of their comfort zone.  The more I think about it the more I’m coming around to the idea that the Saints have to run the ball, and I think they can.  My gut tells me the Colts are going to cover those short/swing passes, so running the ball will be the only way to open up the passing game for Drew Brees.  I also expect a lot of Jeremy Shockey on third down.  Brees needs to use every weapon in his arsenal.

The Pick: Manning is playing the best quarterback I have ever seen played right now.  For the Saints to win they have to play an almost perfect game.  No turnovers, no personal fouls, and no drive killing penalties or drops.  If they leave even one point out on the field they will lose the game.  They will leave seven out on the field…

33-26 Colts.

Misconception: Recruiting website rankings are an indicator of talent:  Rivals.com, Scout.com, ESPN, and etc. all have ranking systems used to determine who the best recruits are in any given year.  Most fans and media use these rankings to judge how good a player is, but there’s a problem with that approach.  The rankings are not an indicator of talent, but an indicator of how many teams are pursuing a particular player.  For example:  Jonathan Hankins is a DT from Michigan that is committed to Ohio State.  He is only a 3-star recruit and you will not find his name among the Top 80 DT’s in the country on Rivals.com.  He may not have a ton of scholarship offers compared to Shariff Floyd (Rivals #1 DT), but the names on his list speak for themselves.  They include Florida, Oklahoma, and of course Ohio State.  If Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, and Jim Tressel think this player is good enough to offer a scholarship to then that’s an indicator to me that he is a talented player regardless of his ranking. This is especially true when you consider that Florida and Oklahoma don’t usually offer scholarships to players outside of their geographic region unless they are recruiting a super talent.

Misconception: Recruiting gurus are better talent evaluators than coaches:  If anyone thinks that the coaches care about where a particular recruiting service ranks their recruiting classes then they are delusional about the whole process.  I can not stress this enough, with the exception of a few (i.e. Bill Conley, the former Ohio State recruiting coordinator who recently left ESPN) these recruiting experts are simply trying to make money by feeding into the fans appetite for information.  If I were to venture a guess I would say that coaches put more time into evaluating one player than Rivals.com puts into evaluating 500 players.  Please don’t misinterpret what I’m trying to say.  I enjoy all of the recruiting websites and devour the rankings. They are generally a pretty good indicator on how a player’s skills and combine type numbers will project to the college level.  You just can’t let yourself get too caught up in the stars.  There is nothing I love more than when Coach Tressel gets a commitment from a James Laurenaitis or a Malcolm Jenkins.  I look them up on Rivals.com, see the 3-stars and the low ranking, and just smile.  I trust the coaches.  You should too.

Misconception: Class rankings indicate who got the best class:  I know that based on what I already wrote we shouldn’t be paying attention to this anyway, but we do.  It is a competition amongst fans and an extension of the season. All of the websites rank which schools have the best class based on their ranking systems.  If you look closely you’ll notice that these class rankings are based primarily on one variable – Class Size.  It has nothing to do with player rankings at all.  If a team takes 25 players, they will automatically have a better class than a team that takes 18.  More players equal more collective rankings points.  This is why Michigan may have a higher ranked class than Ohio State despite signing numerous players from Ohio that the Buckeyes didn’t offer a scholarship to.  It is also important to remember that not every player a school signs actually enrolls at that school.

Misconception: Teams recruit to fill needs in the upcoming season:  Unlike the NFL Draft college teams do not recruit to meet the immediate needs of the following year’s team.  They recruit to meet the needs of the program.  A recruiting class is no more than an influx of depth.  A school may sign 6 DB’s in a recruiting class, but that is because 1) You need a lot of DB’s due to the popularity of multiple receiver sets in college football and 2) That school may only have 8 DB’s on scholarship which only gives them a 2-deep.  If those 6 players see the field their true-freshman season it is due to injury or they are running on special teams.  They were essentially signed to provide depth, not be impact players their freshman year.  A good program already has the replacement for a departing player on the roster.  Yes, once in awhile there is a unique talent that enters a program at a position of need and starts from Day 1, but that is the exception, not the rule.  An example of this would be if Seantrel Henderson signs with Ohio State on Wednesday.  He plays LT; a glaring need for the Buckeyes.  Should he sign, he will be given every chance to win that job.

It is always exciting to learn about the new players coming into the program and all of the information we gather from these websites is helpful towards fulfilling that excitement.  So, enjoy the day, just don’t let it affect your sanity.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove09/news/story?id=4869912